Hartmut Kiehling*
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Abstract: For roughly 15 years, economic research has been involved with chaotic systems. During these years chaos theory took a firm place in science, although the enthusiasm of the first decade was followed by a more subdued kind of consideration. This might be the time to sum up some of the results and to develop some ideas concerning possible applications of chaos theory to economic history (and its theory). Since a good portion of the chaos research that has been done until now deals with financial markets, we will consider that section of economics.
* Address all communications to Hartmut Kiehling, Heerstraße 9, D-81247 München,
Tel. +49-(0)89-8116379, Fax. +49-(0)89-8110189, e-mail: 101520.2007@compu-serve.com, 0898110189@t-online.de.
T. Vaga published his Coherent Market Hypothesis as a nonlinear statistical model. He distinguishes four market phases: random walk, transition, chaotic markets, and coherent markets. Each one is characterized by different kinds of attitudes and the mutual influence of investors. The model follows the psychological theory of social imitation, but is formulated mathematically. 15
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