International Workshop on Coping with Crises in Complex Socio-Economic Systems

ETH Zurich (Switzerland), June 8-12, 2009
Monday, June 8, 2009:
15:20 - 15:45 CAB G 51
Tonis Vaga: A Financial Market Bifurcation Parameter

Preliminary Program

Poster Presentations

Organizers

Kay Axhausen
Lars-Erik Cederman
Dirk Helbing (Coordinator)
Hans Jürgen Herrmann
Frank Schweitzer
Didier Sornette

Social systems typically feature crises, i.e. unstable and dangerous situations that are characterized by abrupt and large-scale changes. Such disruptions are very hard to predict with any precision and even harder to control. Indeed, crises often convey an impression that key decision makers have lost control and that events unfold in an unstoppable and even catastrophic way. Examples include environmental crises, the collapse of transportation systems, as well as financial and social crises such as poverty, social conflicts or wars.

These and other issues will be addressed during the meeting, which combines elements of an interdisciplinary workshop with a think tank and a summer school for young scientists. Scientists and students interested in participating in this workshop are asked to send an e-mail to Lubos Buzna (lbuzna@ethz.ch) or Amin Mazloumian (amin@gess.ethz.ch) to be included in the e-mail distribution list of this workshop.

I look forward to meeting you!
Dirk Helbing, on behalf of the organizing committee.

CURRENT MARKET: DISORDERED STATE

(click on image to expand)

During the past 12 months the Dow Industrials have had an even lower return and higher risk than the average for prior extremely disordered markets. The high volatility of extremely disordered markets includes large swings both up and down. While the stimulus and bailout programs should provide the credit necessary to eventually restore normal market structure, so far the quantitative evidence is consistent with a disordered market state.